Finding a true conservative amongst the Republicans

January 1, 2008

 

As the Iowa caucuses get under way this week, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee continues to lead by a handful of points.  It appears to be a battle between Huckabee and Romney for Iowa.  In the end, will it really matter?  Has it ever mattered who won Iowa? 

 

If history is any indication, Iowa has little bearing on who will be the nominee.  It can be argued that they pick the ultimate nominee more than they don’t but it can also be argued that most of the time, their prediction is a candidate already poised to win the nomination, regardless of how Iowa goes.  For example, they picked George W. Bush in the last two elections, but who didn’t?   In 1988, they chose Bob Dole and George H.W. Bush eventually got the nomination and won the election.  In 1980, they picked George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, of course, won the nomination and the election. 

 

That’s certainly not to diminish what Mike Huckabee has managed to accomplish in Iowa.  Huckabee’s recent surge in the polls has been nothing short of astonishing.  He has risen to the top, in part, on his stand regarding illegal immigration.  He has milked his recent endorsement by Minuteman Project co-founder Jim Gilchrist for all it’s worth.  To be quite honest, it ain’t worth much.  Gilchrist has proven himself to be less than representative of the anti-illegal immigration movement and some have even accused him of being a political opportunist.

 

Americans for Legal Immigration PAC (ALIPAC) has released the results of their poll of Republican Iowa voters.  Although not widely reported by the mainstream media, illegal immigration tops all other issues – including the economy, the Iraq War and the sub-prime mortgage problems – as the number one issue for Iowa Republicans.  ALIPAC’s poll showed that 65 percent of Iowa Republicans oppose Huckabee’s “touchback” amnesty proposal for illegal immigrants.  Under the plan, Huckabee would allow illegal immigrants to simply go back to their home countries for a short period then come right back in, skipping ahead of everyone else who is waiting patiently – and legally – to come to America.  That can only mean one of two things.  Either all the polls in Iowa showing Huckabee in the lead are flawed or the vast majority of Republican voters in Iowa are in the dark about Huckabee’s “touchback” proposal.  Chances are, it’s the latter.

 

If your issue is illegal immigration, as it appears it is with Iowa Republicans, your choices for president are dwindling.  Congressman Tom Tancredo, who made illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, dropped out of the race.  Inexplicably, he threw his support to Mitt Romney, who has done his best to dodge the issue altogether.  That leaves only three candidates who would do something about illegal immigration as president – Ron Paul, Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter.

 

Although Ron Paul is an attractive candidate as far as returning us to constitutional principles, his naivete when it comes to why the terrorists want to kill us makes him a risky choice.  Thompson has a good plan but there are soft spots in his record.  Congressman Duncan Hunter from California is the only candidate left with a solid record on illegal immigration.  He built the border fence in California and is its chief sponsor to extend it all the way through Texas.  He is a true conservative on every issue, from national defense to trade with China.  Why he hasn’t gained traction with conservatives is a head-scratcher.

 

If you’re a true conservative, Huckabee is not your man.  Perhaps it’s time for Duncan Hunter to stage his own Huckabeesque surge.