Stick A Fork In Him, Howard Dean Is Done

January 28, 2004

It is now quite apparent that the infamous “Dean Scream” has seriously damaged, if not totally derailed, the candidacy of Howard Dean. After being beat by double digits in New Hampshire, Dean's concession speech seemed downright maudlin compared to the Iowa spectacle. The reality, that John Kerry is now the undisputed front-runner after winning Iowa and New Hampshire, has begun to sink in at the Dean campaign.

 

So what will become of Howard Dean? Will he simply wither away and allow Kerry's train to gain momentum. Not likely. Dean is somewhat of a loose cannon. A spoiler. He was the dark horse from the beginning and only relatively recently gained front-runner status before Kerry spoiled his fun. He thrives on being the underdog. If that's the case, he certainly should be thriving today. Kerry has knocked the wind out of his campaign but Dean will get up, brush his clothes off and fight another day. But can he win?

 

Arizona is seen as a largely conservative state, which gives none of the top-tier candidates an advantage. Pollster John Zogby says Arizona is very different from other states. This will be the first test in the West, the first state with a high number of Hispanic voters and the first state without a regional favorite son. Zogby says Arizona doesn't elect nuts, it elects iconoclasts. Your guess is as good as mine as to how Arizonians will characterize Howard Dean. Probably more the former than the latter.

 

Wesley Clark simply has to do well in Arizona, South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma or he's done. Same goes for John Edwards, although Arizona is less crucial. Certainly South Carolina is most important to the Edwards campaign. He's originally from there and now lives in neighboring North Carolina. There is an interesting rivalry, though, between the two Carolinas. Many South Carolinians think their northern brethren are looking down their noses at them. It will be interesting to see if Edwards can overcome that. If he doesn't win South Carolina, he's seriously wounded if not completely out of the race.

 

Unfortunately for the Democrats, the only moderate voice they have in this race, Joe Lieberman, has been completely cast aside. That should give you some indication of where this party is and where it's heading. Lieberman is through. Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich are jokes. That leaves Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark battling it out. After February 3 rd , only two, perhaps three, will be standing. By the time the race hits Tennessee on February 10 th , it will mostly likely be all over.

 

The only person more nervous than the three or four Democratic front-runners is George W. Bush. He was banking on Howard Dean winning the nomination. I'm sure Karl Rove had already cued up that tirade in Iowa in preparations for the general election commercials. Now it looks like John Kerry. As I said back last spring, it's going to be the John-John ticket, if Hillary stays out, and it appears she will. John Kerry and John Edwards. That's President Bush's worst nightmare. They're both very likeable, if not very liberal. Edwards brings the South and the trial lawyers. Kerry has the war record and the senate experience and brings the liberal but well-populated Northeast. Both, especially Kerry, are so far to the left of the mainstream they have very little to offer the American people except bigger government. But when have the American people been worried about ideology? It's about charisma and charm and smooth talking and good looks. It's about recapturing Camelot. Remember 1992?

 

Oh, how I yearn for the Howard Dean heydays.