Where's The Post-Convention Bounce?

August 4, 2004

The conventional wisdom coming out of the Democratic Convention in Boston was that the Kerry-Edwards ticket would need a 10 to 15 point bounce to sustain them until November. That didn't happen. Instead, at least one poll indicated that President Bush actually got a 5 point bounce. That doesn't bode well for the Democrats. But does that mean the Republicans are in the driver's seat? Not necessarily.

 

It's always nice to be ahead going into your convention but there's always the risk that the more people see you, the less they like you. Certainly happened for the Democrats despite an impressive convention. The problem in Boston was the contrast between speakers like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton compared to John Kerry. In their effort to dazzle the delegates and the nation with charismatic charmers, the DNC overshadowed their own presidential candidate.

 

That's not to say that John Kerry did a bad job. It was probably one of his better speeches (although I'm not quite sure what ‘hair' pollution is). The problem was, the bases were loaded and Kerry needed to hit one out of the park. Perhaps his ‘girlie man' ceremonial first pitch at the Red Sox/Yankees game earlier in the week was a harbinger of things to come. He didn't strike out during his speech at the convention. He just hit a single. A single was not good enough.

 

The Republicans get their turn at bat at the end of August. Most polls show them in a dead heat, some showing them slightly ahead. If President Bush's speech the day after the Democratic Convention is any indication, they're up to the task. Bush is always more effective when he's on the offensive instead of playing defense. He looks more sure of himself. There's the famous W swagger. He starts talking more like a real person rather than like a political wonk trying to wade through mind-numbing policy.

 

Watch for the difference between now and November. When he leans on that podium with one arm and addresses the audience one-on-one, it's George W. Bush at his best. There's a down-home quality there that John Kerry just can't match. That's what the Republicans need to highlight. All else being equal, it comes down to likeability. John Kerry is still too stiff, too aloof, too, dare I say, boring. W, whether you like him or not, connects with the audience. Bill Clinton was the same way. I despised the way he conducted his life and squandered the presidency but there's no doubt that Clinton's an engaging speaker.

 

As it stands right now, the Kerry-Edwards ticket isn't saying much different from the Bush-Cheney ticket when it comes to the two big issues – Iraq and the economy. Kerry says he'll stay in Iraq until the job is done. So does Bush. Kerry, who first blasted the Bush tax cuts, now says he'll keep those in place except those for the top 1 or 2 percent. Although the media are trying to drum up interest in other issues like stem cell research only two things will matter come November. Iraq and the economy.

 

If both of those issues stay pretty much the same, it'll come down to a popularity contest. Unless the Republicans screw up royally at their convention, Bush will come out on top. They'll need to accentuate the president's record on fighting terrorism. Replay his ad lib from Ground Zero. Flash forward to the Taliban falling. Don't overdo it.

 

Oh, and if they really want to add some points in the polls they may want to invite John Kerry to speak. It worked before.